Market Update Into February 12th: Wyckoff Accumulation and Powerful RSI Readings

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It was another strong week in the markets, with powerful moves and new weekly highs across all of the indices.

Despite the weakening market breadth mentioned in last week’s post, all three major indices closed at or within earshot of the high of the week! Let’s dig into the individual names and see how the charts are looking.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

Finding nearly perfect support at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, the SPY ETF closed at $501.20 (+1.38%) and logged the strongest weekly RSI reading it has seen since September 2021.

This is a weekly chart of the SPY index. On it, we see price finding support at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension as well as RSI hitting the highest weekly level its seen since August of 2021.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

After several weeks of struggling to break away from the top of the ascending channel, the QQQ ETF managed to turn this previous resistance into support, pushing powerfully through the 2.0 Fibonacci extension and closing the week at $437.05 (+1.88%).  

This is a weekly chart of the QQQ, which shows price definitively pushing away from the top of the ascending channel and breaking through the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

Closing at $199.34 (+2.56%), the IWM ETF continues to flash signs of late-stage Wyckoff accumulation, finding support at the 200-Wk SMA, putting in a higher low at the last point of supply and breaking out of the flag pattern it has been in since the beginning of the year.

This is a weekly chart of the IWM index which shows the final stages of wyckoff accumulation, with price finding a higher low at the last point of supply and the 200-week simple moving average.

Earnings

This is an image of all the major names who reported earnings this week and the results.

Notable Results

PLTR (Palantir)

EPS: $0.08   vs   0.08 est
SALES: $608M   vs   $603M est

SPOT (Spotify)

EPS: $0.39   vs   $0.05 est
SALES: $3.67B   vs   $3.72B est

BABA (Alibaba)

EPS: $2.67   vs   $2.64 est 
SALES: $36.67B   vs   $36.40B est

PYPL (PayPal)

EPS: $1.48  vs  $1.36 est
SALES: $8.00B  vs  $7.87B est

NET (Cloudflare)

EPS: $0.15   vs   $0.12 est
SALES: $362.47M   vs   $353.10M est

MCD (McDonalds)

EPS: $2.95   vs   $2.82 est
SALES: $6.41B   vs   $6.45B est

LLY (Eli Lilly)

EPS: $2.49   vs   $2.19 est
SALES: $9.35B   vs   $8.93B est

UBER (Uber)

EPS: $0.66   vs   $0.49 est 
SALES: $9.90B   vs   $9.76B est

DIS (Disney)

EPS: $1.22   vs   $0.99 est 
SALES: $23.50B   vs   $23.80B est

ARM (Arm Holdings)

EPS: $0.29   vs   $0.25 est
SALES: $824.00M   vs   $761.62M est

What’s Happening Now

DIS (Disney)

Disney announced a 50% increase to its quarterly dividend and a $3 billion repurchase program following strong Q1 earnings. Price has shot up over 9% since, and it just so happens that next week is its best-performing time of the year.

This is a weekly seasonality chart of Disney, which shows next week (The week of February 12th) as the strongest performing week of the year over the past 19 years!
UBER (Uber)

In a flurry of optimism, analysts got bullish on Uber following the release of their Q4 earnings. 12 Analysts slapped down buy ratings, with Needham setting a street-high 12-month price target of $90/share, representing a 27% upside to Friday’s close of $70.91.

This is an analyst estimates chart of UBER, which shows 12 Buy upgrades over the last week.
BTC (Bitcoin)

Since Jerome Powell’s hawkish commentary effectively taking a March rate cut off the table, Bitcoin has rallied over 13%. With the winds of seasonal strength at its back, this move could be just the start of an even stronger February.

This is an image of the seasonality chart for Bitcoin, which shows February as being the strongest month of the year historically over the past 9 years.


Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official TrendSpider Newsletter!



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